"Putting the Dead to Work"

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This article by Dietl and Flessa (2011) explains much more fully what I was trying to get at with the Arctic lemming example. It focuses on conservation paleobiology, which they define as ‘a relatively new, synthetic field of research that applies the theories and analytical tools of paleontology to the solution of problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity’. This approach can add to conventional wildlife conservation efforts as it allows people to identify trends, patterns and possible responses ‘beyond timescales of direct human experience’. This allows scientists to get a longer-term perspective on modern climatic and ecological systems so that effective conservation policies can be developed.

There are a number of possible future climate scenarios and the job of conservationists is to predict what impacts different changes will have on various species and how species will respond – will they migrate and track more favourable climate? Will they persist in refugia? Or will they become extinct? Policies and efforts can then be made in order to try and mitigate the negative impacts climate change may have on species. The areas and refugia from which populations expanded, or source regions, should be prioritised by conservationists as they provide ‘new recruits’ for other populations and are the source of many characteristic species adaptations. As there is a possible link between range shifts and introductions of species (often seen as invasive species), examining past records of invasion – basically, a history of range expansion – for clues about the possible effects of climatic change on species distributions. ‘Biotic interchanges’ occurred when species migrated great distances in response to climate change, so detailed knowledge of these events will help us predict some of the longer-term effects of invasion.

We already know that many plant and animal species are failing to track the changing climate and are facing the threat of extinction if they cannot adapt. There is, therefore, a need to look at past evidence for adaptive responses so that the adaptive potential for particular species can be assessed. Habitat loss tended to be the cause of species extinctions in the past and habitat loss through climate change looks set to occur in the future. By looking at the ‘filtering effects’ of past species extinctions, we can see which types of species have a better chance of surviving in the face of future environmental change.

Palaeo-data is, evidently, quite useful for providing us with clues about the future, however, as Dietl and Flessa (2011) point out, expecting data of this sort to make a significant and immediate difference when it comes to conservation policies is ‘unreasonable’. In fact, translating scientific evidence into policy is often a major issue in all fields. The authors stress that if conservation biologists have managed to develop a successful dialogue between themselves and environmental agencies so that their work can help inform policy decisions, then so should the conservation palaeobiologists! They should work with environmental agencies so that they develop research objectives that address the current problems. Personally, I think this will be a very long process as even conservation biologists have trouble getting their research findings translated into effective environmental policies, but this is definitely not a reason to give up – studies of the past reveal far too many clues as to how the future may unfold!